AGP Executive Report

Lebanon Damage Update: UNDP and Lebanon’s research partners estimate Israeli strikes have directly damaged about $1.38bn of southern Lebanon’s housing stock, with 11,095 buildings destroyed and 2,242 partially damaged (satellite-based, not covering the latest weeks). US-Iran-Lebanon Diplomacy: A US-backed “deconfliction” plan for Lebanon is drawing sharp backlash in Israel after reports said Israel would be excluded from the mechanism, raising fears it could limit IDF freedom of action while boosting Tehran’s leverage. Saudi Real Estate & Hospitality: Knowledge Economic City (KEC) is positioning its $6.3bn Madinah hospitality and mixed-use portfolio at FHS Saudi Arabia 2026, as Vision 2030 reforms keep attracting international capital. Dubai Construction Watch: Emaar has delayed the tender for Dubai Creek Tower by 3–4 months citing port closures that pushed up material costs and pricing uncertainty. Saudi Urban Policy: Saudi Arabia’s municipal ministry proposes allowing more commercial activities in public parks, with rules based on park size—aimed at boosting neighborhood economic life. Makkah Towers Deal: Al Rajhi Capital, Umm Al Qura for Development and OSUS signed agreements to develop three residential towers at Masar Destination in Makkah (about SAR 1bn). Saudi Megaproject Progress: Jeddah Tower is reported to be on track for at least 167 stories and completion around Aug 2028, with construction moving faster than before. Cross-Border Access: Iran and Iraq agreed to reopen the Sheik Saleh border crossing to passenger traffic, with upgraded hours and security coordination.

Egypt Real Estate Finance: HD Bank’s shareholders approved a capital hike via bonus shares, lifting authorized capital to EGP 30bn and issued/paid-up capital to EGP 10.626bn—another sign of lenders backing growth. Egypt Development Deals: Midar and Majid Al Futtaim signed a $3.1bn New Cairo urban development partnership covering 553 feddans, with the PM framing real estate as a key economic driver. Community Living Push: Madinet Masr launched chüm COMMUNITIES to manage residential and commercial communities post-handover, adding services from maintenance and security to resident experience. UAE/Egypt Investment Momentum: UAE and Egyptian firms continue to ink large-scale projects, reinforcing investor confidence even as regional uncertainty reshapes deal risk checks. GCC Market Shift: A new Middle East real estate study says the sector is moving from pure transactions to long-term operational value—brand loyalty and day-to-day resident experience now matter. Saudi Projects: Sidra Capital and Four Directions agreed to invest over $119.9m in Riyadh’s Fashion District, mixing hotel, offices, residences and retail. Risk Discipline in the UAE: Lenders and investors in Dubai and Abu Dhabi are asking tougher questions on downside scenarios, valuations and execution risk, especially for refinancing and complex ownership deals.

Saudi Real Estate Finance: Riyadh Development Company (ARDCO) got its first-ever S&P ‘A-’ national credit rating with a stable outlook, citing a debt-free balance sheet and about SAR 1bn in cash/short-term investments, as it pushes its “Invest for Growth” plan and recurring-income expansion. Egypt Urban Development: Majid Al Futtaim and Egypt’s Midar signed a $3.1bn mixed-use partnership in New Cairo’s Mada City (553 acres), targeting phased delivery including ~6,000 homes, plus business, retail, hospitality and hotel components. Egypt Hospitality Real Estate: Al Marasem and Kuwait’s Bukhamseen launched a Rotana-branded serviced residences project in New Sheikh Zayed (about EGP 19bn / $380m), with fully finished, furnished units and phased delivery over three years. Jordan Infrastructure & Housing Pipeline: Zarqa’s government programme totals about JD800m over three years, with major spend on water, health, transport and public services, including JD300m for water works and a JD102m military hospital slated for 2028. Saudi PPP Healthcare: A Saudi-German consortium won the operation/management contract for the SABIC Specialised Behavioural Healthcare Hospital in North Riyadh under a PPP structure, supporting the Health Sector Transformation Programme. Israel West Bank Permits: Israeli forces issued stop-work orders for homes and agricultural structures south of Bethlehem, citing permit issues.

Urban Development & Smart Cities: Abu Dhabi’s Building the Future Summit 2026 (June 23-24) will bring developers, investors and infrastructure leaders together to push sustainable infrastructure, smart-city planning and housing-linked growth across the Middle East and North Africa. Real Estate & Construction Pipeline: Abu Dhabi’s Al Maryah Island expansion masterplan (Dh60bn+) targets 1.5m sqm of mixed-use space, while a separate UAE-US AI campus push underlines how data centers and AI infrastructure are becoming new demand engines for offices and residential areas. Regional Housing Market Signals: Dubai property sales reportedly fell 19% in May after Middle East war pressures, while mortgage rates in the region eased as Iran-deal optimism grew—both pointing to shifting affordability and buyer sentiment. Geopolitics Driving Costs: US-Iran ceasefire talks and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty remain key variables for energy prices, construction inputs and financing conditions across the region. Infrastructure Finance: Iraq’s fiscal strain and budget delays are highlighted as oil-export shocks and regional disruptions keep inflation and public finances under pressure.

US-Iran Diplomacy & Energy: Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz amid Lebanon fighting as U.S.-Iran talks head to Switzerland, putting the interim ceasefire framework at risk. Middle East Conflict Impact on Property & Costs: The wider Middle East conflict is still feeding inflation and raising uncertainty for construction and housing pipelines across the region. Egypt Urban Development: Egypt’s PM will witness a $3bn urban development deal in New Cairo, signaling continued push for new residential and mixed-use communities. Egypt Antiquities (Tourism Pull): Egypt announced two Early Dynastic tombs in Minya, plus major temple discoveries in the Bahariya Oasis—fresh attractions that can support heritage-led real estate demand. GCC/Sharjah-China Investment: Sharjah is deepening ties with China through AI, digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, smart mobility and sustainable energy initiatives. Iraq Local Violence (Construction Safety): An Iraqi lawmaker opened fire on construction workers renovating Al-Khansaa Mosque in Baghdad, injuring two. Housing Market Signals (Dubai): Dubai property sales reportedly fell 19% in May after Middle East war pressures, with buyers turning cautious.

GCC Infrastructure Boost: WABAG is expanding across the Gulf with a UAE wastewater design-and-build contract for Ajman’s 60 MLD sewage biorefinery (24 months) and a Kuwait desalination win for the Doha SWRO plant (Stage II), signaling fresh construction demand in water and utilities. Oman Real Estate & Tourism: Duqm’s Special Economic Zone unveiled a waterfront master plan covering 31 sq km and a 15-km coastline, targeting 2,600+ hotel rooms and 3,700+ residential units by 2040, alongside marina, hospitality and commercial space. Bahrain Development Finance: Bahrain signed two Islamic Development Bank deals—about $180m for the King Faisal Highway upgrade and $330m for the Salman Industrial City expansion—aimed at easing congestion and adding serviced industrial plots. Iraq Urban Recovery Stalled: Fallujah’s cultural center project remains stuck at ~70% since 2014 due to funding gaps, administrative failures and alleged corruption, with furnishing scope reportedly removed. Israel/Palestine Trade Rules: Norway is moving to ban trade and restrict real-estate-related activity tied to Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, a policy that could affect cross-border property and services. Iran Deal Watch (Real-Estate Angle): Reports say US-Iran war-ending talks could unlock major money flows, but may also enrich Iran’s Revolutionary Guards—raising uncertainty for investment and construction risk.

Energy & Shipping Shock: Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it will fully close the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fears of major oil-price spikes and higher insurance costs. Diplomacy & Markets: Reports say the U.S. and Iran have moved toward a peace framework, easing some pressure on energy and mortgage rates as markets price in de-escalation. Housing Finance: U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.47% (Freddie Mac), while the broader “Iran deal” narrative is also linked to cooling fuel-cost expectations that can affect construction and buyer demand. Construction & Risk: Insurance coverage is tightening as construction scrutiny rises, with insurers focusing more on natural-disaster and delay risks. Gaza/West Bank Real-Estate Fallout: Norway proposes banning trade and property-related services tied to Israeli settlements, directly targeting construction, renovation, and buying/selling activity. Regional Development: Saudi Arabia’s Qiddiya unveils a major National Tennis Centre plan, while Oman’s Duqm green hydrogen expansion draws a $4.2bn investment push. Heritage & Tourism: Egypt announces new 2,500-year-old temple architectural finds in Bahariya Oasis, reinforcing cultural-tourism momentum.

Energy & Trade: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says the Strait of Hormuz is shut to all shipping in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes, raising fears of major oil-price spikes and wider supply-chain disruption. Market Sentiment: Even with talk of reopening, analysts warn the effects of the closure will linger for months as shipping firms, insurance and infrastructure recovery adjust. Real Estate & Construction: Abu Dhabi’s residential market shows strong momentum, with home sales surging in Q1 and off-plan dominating activity, while developers and buyers watch geopolitical risk for the next quarters. Governance & Delivery: Turkey expanded raids on opposition-run municipalities, alleging bribery tied to unauthorized construction and unlicensed operations—another reminder that local enforcement can reshape development pipelines. Regional Business Links: Uzbekistan and Iraq launched a joint business council, flagging construction and electrical engineering as near-term collaboration priorities.

Middle East Energy & Infrastructure: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating tensions after U.S. airstrikes and raising fears of major oil-price shocks and insurance spikes—an immediate risk factor for regional ports, logistics and construction supply chains. Lebanon Housing Damage: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the war destroyed about 68,000 housing units and damaged nearly 18% of the country’s territory, with damage spreading to roads, power, water systems, schools and hospitals—setting the scale for rebuilding demand. UAE Ports & Pipelines: The UAE is fast-tracking multibillion-dollar pipeline and port expansion to cut “zero Hormuz dependency,” including a second pipeline to Fujairah, to protect energy exports and related real estate-linked industrial activity. Saudi Real Estate Deals: Saudi Arabia signed $507m housing and smart-city deals with Chinese firms, adding momentum to planned residential and urban development. Qatar Digital Push: Qatar Chamber launched a Technology and Innovation Committee to accelerate private-sector digital transformation, a move that could support smarter property and construction workflows. Market Mood via Iran Deal: Mortgage rates in the U.S. fell to 6.47% after a ceasefire/peace-deal signal, which may indirectly ease financing conditions for buyers watching global rates.

Middle East Energy & Infrastructure: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fears of major oil-price shocks and higher insurance costs. US-Iran Deal Watch: Pakistan says the Iran–US “Islamabad MoU” has been electronically signed, with Iran to reopen Hormuz and the U.S. to lift its naval blockade ahead of a Geneva ceremony. Urban Development (Iraq): The Iraqi Development Fund is commissioning a new 36-point study to restart the Baghdad Metro, with implementation delayed until studies on demographics and routes are finished. Saudi Real Estate & Smart Cities: Saudi Arabia signed $507m in housing, construction and smart-city agreements with Chinese firms, while Dar Global awarded a SAR338m design-and-build infrastructure contract for its Diriyah Rayana luxury community. Regional Construction Costs: Cyprus construction material prices rose again in May, led by metals and wood, keeping building inflation pressure on the island. Real Estate Finance (GCC): Jabal Omar Development secured a SAR533m Murabaha refinancing deal with Saudi National Bank to optimize cash flow for its Makkah mega-development. Market Sentiment: Gulf stocks edged higher on optimism around the US-Iran ceasefire, with Dubai’s real estate and industrial names leading early gains. Climate & Sustainable Urbanism (GCC): Qatar’s GORD, Ras Al Khaimah’s EPDA and the Global Carbon Council signed an MoU to push climate action, carbon markets and sustainable urban development across the region.

West Asia Energy Shock: Iran says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fears of major oil-price spikes and higher insurance costs—an immediate risk for regional infrastructure and construction supply chains. Mortgage & Housing Costs: Fed signals keep rates steady but markets worry about higher borrowing costs; mortgage rates eased slightly to 6.32% APR, while analysts warn Middle East-linked energy and food prices could keep pressure on household budgets. UAE Proptech & Transparency: Aqaree, a UAE-developed platform, launched to improve verified property discovery and remote viewing, aiming to boost transparency and streamline transactions in Abu Dhabi and across the UAE. Saudi Industrial Real Estate: SPARK signed with Pan Kingdom Real Estate to build 168 ready-built energy-related industrial units across 214,000 sq m in Saudi Arabia, supporting Vision 2030 local content goals. Dubai Luxury Deals: Three ultra-luxury residential transactions worth Dhs323m were recorded in one day, signaling resilient demand for high-end assets post–U.S.-Iran truce. West Bank Governance & Planning: Israel moves to strip Hebron’s municipality of planning powers around the Ibrahimi Mosque, with new construction approvals tied to settlement governance changes. Lebanon Ceasefire Doubts: Hezbollah’s opponents question whether Iran can enforce any U.S.-Iran ceasefire impact on the ground in Lebanon. Kuwait Urban Management: Kuwait’s council tackles random truck and heavy-vehicle parking in public and mixed-use areas, pushing for coordinated sites and clearer oversight. Philippines Housing Finance Relief: Pag-IBIG launched a P10,000 emergency loan (SAFE) for members hit by Middle East conflict fallout, with up to three-year repayment terms.

Middle East Energy Risk: Iran announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping after U.S. airstrikes, warning of major supply disruption and potential oil-price spikes that could hit global markets and Middle East construction and logistics costs. Saudi Urban Development: Saudi Arabia signed $507m in housing and smart-city construction agreements with Chinese firms, including smart-city tech and city-management cooperation tied to Vision 2030. Saudi Real Estate & Industry: King Salman Energy Park (SPARK) will add 168 ready-built energy industrial units across 214,000 sqm via Pan Kingdom Real Estate, aiming to boost local content and speed up supplier operations. Egypt Property Tax Digitisation: Egypt launched its first mobile app for real estate tax services and raised the family primary residence exemption threshold to EGP 8m, with e-filing, e-payments and valuation mapping planned. Israel/Palestine Land & Housing: A London real estate event admitted promoting properties in illegal Israeli settlements “by mistake,” triggering calls for an Advertising Standards Authority investigation. Türkiye Nuclear Ambition: Türkiye reiterated plans for competitive, safe nuclear power with domestic content, including ongoing Akkuyu reactors and future sites.

Geopolitics & Energy: Iran says it has shut the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fears of major oil-price shocks that could ripple into regional construction and property costs. West Bank Governance: Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich moves to strip Palestinians of key Hebron municipal planning powers tied to the 1997 Hebron Agreement, a direct hit to local permitting and development control. Lebanon Displacement: After a U.S.-Iran deal announcement, some residents begin returning to Nabatiyeh to check damaged homes, even as strikes continue—an ongoing drag on housing recovery and urban rebuilding. Housing Finance (Philippines, war-cost relief): Pag-IBIG launches its SAFE Loan letting qualified members borrow up to P10,000 at 5.95% to cushion Middle East-linked cost pressures. Infrastructure & Regional Expansion: India’s Konkan Railway prepares bids for major projects in Dubai Metro, Argentina and Israel, signaling continued cross-border rail and construction contracting ambitions. Syria Reconstruction Pipeline: AJi enters Syria via BUILDEX 2026 and a collaboration with Tala Engineering, targeting engineering and urban development work ahead of large-scale reconstruction needs.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says it has shut the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping after U.S. airstrikes, warning of major supply disruption as oil markets brace for chaos; Deal Uncertainty: the U.S. and Iran also announced a peace framework, but Europe is linking any sanctions relief to “clear, verifiable” nuclear steps, keeping investors cautious; Saudi Construction Pipeline: Saipem won a €900m share of an onshore EPC contract for the Uthmaniyah gas compression plant under Saudi’s National EPC Champion Program, a signal for continued energy-linked infrastructure spend; UAE Real Estate Momentum: Gulf markets reopened on deal optimism, lifting UAE stocks including Emaar and Aldar, while Kuwait-based Urbnlanes is reportedly negotiating a major Ras El Hekma North Coast tourism land purchase; Egypt Tax Digitisation: Egypt’s minister announced the launch of a first mobile application for real estate tax services, aiming to streamline compliance; Israel Built Environment: Tel Aviv plans a NIS 200m rehabilitation hospital in Sde Rov (opening 2032), adding 540 beds and reshaping North Tel Aviv social infrastructure.

West Bank Housing & Politics: Sky News reports illegal Israeli settlement properties were promoted at a London property show, sparking protests and police arrests, reigniting scrutiny over “Green Line” claims. North Coast Delivery Pipeline (Egypt): Al Ahly Sabbour plans 600 unit deliveries in summer 2026 at its Youd project (Ras El Hekma), plus 420 units at Gaia and major site works at Summer (Sidi Heneish), with overall completion targeted for 2028. Saudi Housing Demand vs Uncertainty: Knight Frank says Saudi’s housing fundamentals stay strong despite a Q1 2026 transaction slump, pointing to population growth, homeownership trends and Vision 2030 supply initiatives. Saudi Sports Infrastructure: Qiddiya unveils a “Wimbledon-like” National Tennis Centre with 30 courts and a 15,000-seat centre court, designed by Populous, pushing sports-led real estate and tourism. Qatar-Syria Industrial Link: Al Bidda Industries and Siemens in Qatar sign an MoU to expand cooperation into Syria, including smart infrastructure and digital industries for energy and real estate-related sectors. Construction Finance Watch (Broader): A Reuters survey finds U.S. homebuilder sentiment slipping as mortgage rates and construction costs stay high—an affordability signal that can ripple into regional demand. Energy Corridor Risk (Regional): Iran’s closure threat and U.S.-Iran deal headlines keep Strait of Hormuz shipping and oil-linked costs in focus, with knock-on effects for development financing and materials.

Egypt Hospitality Boost: Al Ahly Sabbour Developments plans a ~200-key Marriott-operated hotel at its Amwaj North Coast resort, with construction due to start in 2027 and the wider 342-acre, 3,600-unit project nearing completion. Saudi Housing Push: Saudi Arabia awarded two Chinese contracts worth SAR 1.9bn for nearly 4,500 homes—Riyadh’s Al-Ruba (2,010 units) and Dammam’s Al-Rasha (2,426 units)—as part of a drive to deliver 100,000 homes by 2030. UAE Portfolio Expansion: Dubai developer Omniyat targets doubling its portfolio to over Dh200bn by 2030 and is eyeing a new large-scale Abu Dhabi project. Egypt Mixed-Use Hotel Deal: HDP and TULUA Developments signed with Radisson Blu to develop and operate a 175-room hotel in Blu Stays, the final phase of The Island at Marina 5, with delivery expected in 3–5 years. Regional Energy Shock Watch: Iran’s closure threat and then reopening talk around the Strait of Hormuz is feeding directly into oil-price expectations—an important backdrop for mortgage and construction cost sentiment across the region. Construction Pipeline: Saudi Arabia’s rail freight network expansion adds a 22.7km Dammam 2nd Industrial City connection, supporting industrial logistics under Vision 2030.