AGP Executive Report

Energy & Infrastructure Risk: Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping after U.S. airstrikes, raising fears of a major oil shock and spiking insurance and shipping disruptions—an immediate headwind for construction and real estate financing across the region. Construction Costs: U.S. data shows construction input prices jumped 2.6% in May and are up 9.6% year-on-year, with fuel and metals (tariff-sensitive steel/copper) driving margin pressure—likely to echo in MENA projects where materials are imported or linked to global benchmarks. GCC Real Estate/Logistics: GFH Bank signed an MoU with OCTO to develop a $300m logistics and industrial real estate platform across the UAE and Saudi Arabia, targeting large-format warehousing and distribution centers. Egypt Power Grid Buildout: Korra Energi’s consortium won $58m in Egypt transmission contracts to connect Gulf of Suez wind farms to the national grid, supporting renewable-linked industrial demand. Urban Heritage & Recovery: Syria’s Umayyad Mosque restoration story highlights how heritage-led tourism could become a real estate and urban regeneration lever in post-Assad Damascus. Controversy in Property Marketing: London Mayor Sadiq Khan condemned a “Great Israeli Real Estate” event tied to West Bank settlement land sales, adding political risk to cross-border property promotion. Market Sentiment: Stocks and oil swung on shifting Iran-US deal signals, underscoring how quickly regional real estate demand and capital flows can react to geopolitics.

Dubai Real Estate Deals: Emaar’s $55bn masterplan and Dubai island land sales keep the spotlight on Gulf prime property demand, even as the Iran war rattles regional sentiment; Dubai Sotheby’s says three beachfront plots on Naia Island sold for Dh1bn in two months, with buyers described as end-users. UAE Infrastructure PPP: Dubai Municipality has picked preferred bidders for the first two packages of its AED80bn ($22bn) Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels project, including deep sewer tunnels and 200km+ of sewer links. Regional Trade Routes: With Hormuz under threat again, Türkiye is being pitched as a potential trade bridge between the Gulf and Europe, raising questions about whether a land corridor can truly replace maritime chokepoints. Israel/West Bank Development Pressure: Multiple reports point to accelerated West Bank settlement funding and expansion plans, keeping land and construction risk high for investors and insurers. Macro Spillover to Property: The UK economy contracted 0.1% in April as Iran-war-linked cancellations hit services, a reminder that Middle East conflict can quickly feed into construction and housing demand through energy and borrowing costs. Lebanon Displacement: Temporary graves in southern Lebanon underline how ongoing strikes are disrupting communities and long-term housing recovery. Controversy in Luxury Marketing: Gwyneth Paltrow’s backlash over an Israeli luxury real estate ad adds reputational risk to cross-border development branding.

Dubai Mega-Projects: Emaar says it will unveil an AED 200bn masterplan in central Dubai, targeting ~150,000 residents with towers, villas, retail, hospitality and civic spaces. UAE Water & Infrastructure: Dubai Municipality has picked preferred bidders for early packages of the AED 80bn ($22bn) Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels PPP, with deep sewer links to Warsan and Jebel Ali. Saudi Development Tenders: Saudi Arabia’s Holy Capital Municipality launched an investor tender for a 166,488 sqm mixed-use project on Al-Hada Road in Makkah under a 50-year BOOT model. Desalination Deal (UAE): EtihadWE awarded a $285m EPC contract for the Fujairah I independent water producer SWRO desalination plant (272,765 m3/day). Israel Real Estate/Settlements: Reports say Israel’s cabinet is set to approve funding for 61 new West Bank settlement sites, with a first tranche of about $51m for 69 illegal settlements/outposts and a larger $338m allocation reportedly postponed. Mortgage Pressure (US): Reuters polls and Freddie Mac data point to persistently high US mortgage rates (~6.52% long-term), keeping housing turnover subdued. Market Sentiment (Europe): European shares rose after the ECB’s first rate hike in nearly three years; real estate stocks lagged. War Risk to Energy: Kharg Island remains a key oil-export target in the Iran-US-Israel standoff, with threats to “assume total control” of Iran’s oil and gas. Brand/PR Fallout: Gwyneth Paltrow faced backlash for starring in an ad promoting luxury Israeli real estate in Herzliya.

Dubai Mega-Project: Emaar is set to unveil a landmark AED200bn masterplan for a “city within a city,” targeting ~150,000 residents with homes, offices, retail, hospitality and civic spaces. Dubai District Expansion: Emaar also plans a separate Dh200bn Dubai district designed for 150,000 residents, with metro connectivity and a 20-minute-city layout. Saudi Real Estate & Infrastructure: Hassan Allam’s Grova Developments launches Grova EastHills in Cairo, a villas-and-townhouses community across 300+ acres with 45% open space. Egypt Social Spending: Egypt’s plan boosts health spending by 25% for 2026/27, alongside higher education and social housing allocations. Saudi Water Innovation: Saudi Arabia’s SWA brings back IDWS 2026 in Jeddah, aiming to grow participation by 50% with 10,000+ attendees focused on water governance and sustainability. GCC Water Strategy: ACCIONA highlights desalination and water security as a key enabler for GCC real estate and urban growth. West Bank Settlement Funding: Israel is reported to be preparing USD 350m to fund 61 settlements, a move that could accelerate settlement expansion and reshape land and development risk. Regional Trade & Connectivity: Oman-UAE railway progress is cited at 40% complete, reinforcing cross-border logistics that can support future property demand. Construction Finance Pressure: Egypt’s development plan signals heavy investment needs, with private sector expected to fund a large share—important for project delivery amid cost and funding constraints.

Israel Real Estate & Politics: Gwyneth Paltrow faces backlash after starring in a luxury Israeli housing ad for “51 Park” in Herzliya, as critics link the marketing push to the wider Gaza war and alleged rights abuses. West Bank Land & Housing Risk: Multiple reports highlight Israel tightening control in east Jerusalem and the West Bank through evictions, demolitions and settlement-linked actions, raising fears of further land loss and displacement. Middle East Conflict Hits Costs: A wider construction-and-housing confidence slide is being blamed on higher input costs and uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict, with project postponements and thinner margins. GCC/Regional Development Pipeline: In Egypt, Sky Innovo begins Citystars Park St. phase one in New Cairo (offices, Fairmont-branded hospitality and branded residences). In Dubai, AHS Properties plans a AED 25bn mixed-use project on Sheikh Zayed Road. Kuwait Housing Infrastructure: PAHW launches housing-city tenders for roads, utilities, water towers and power cables, plus an international consultancy tender for a planned medical city in Sabah Al Ahmad. Transport & Alternative Trade Routes: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia sign an MoU to restore/extend the Ottoman-era Hejaz Railway as a potential bypass route around Hormuz. Smart Buildings Tech: iFLYTEK launches SpaceMind, an agentic smart-space platform for homes, hotels and offices, using radar sensing rather than cameras. Markets & Financing Pressure: Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.25% while noting Middle East-driven energy price pressure; US inflation also runs hot, complicating mortgage and construction financing outlooks.

East Jerusalem Housing Pressure: Israel stepped up evictions and demolitions in annexed east Jerusalem, with 260+ structures demolished in 2025 and at least 116 so far in 2026, raising fresh risks for Palestinian communities. Dubai Mortgage Boost: Commercial Bank of Dubai and Dubai Holding Real Estate-backed developers (Nakheel, Meraas, Dubai Properties) launched an earlier, stage-based mortgage option for off-plan buyers, including digital pre-approval and support for salaried and self-employed customers. Qatar Construction Showcase: Project Qatar 2026 highlighted smart building and infrastructure tech as Qatar pushes Vision 2030-aligned development. GCC Build Momentum: AESG says Gulf construction remains robust, with concrete supply up 13% and reinforcement steel up 16% since Q4 2025, signaling active execution despite cost pressure. Cross-Border Rail Progress: The UAE–Oman Hafeet Rail link hit 40% completion on a 238km corridor aimed at boosting freight and passenger connectivity. Saudi Residential Deal: Al Majdiah will develop a SAR 56m Riyadh housing project in Granada over 24 months under a cost-plus model. Egypt Market Snapshot: Madinet Masr reported Q1 2026 sales of EGP 11.7bn (+7% YoY) and 1,495 units sold, while CAPMAS put May inflation at 13% with housing and utilities up sharply. GCC Credit Watch: S&P says GCC issuer credit profiles are resilient, but longer Iran-related disruptions could erode buffers and hit corporate issuers more than sovereigns.

Middle East Construction & Materials: Qatar’s Project Qatar 2026 opened in Doha with 145 exhibitors (120 local, 25 international), spotlighting construction materials, smart building tech and infrastructure under the “Manufacture, Build, Innovate” theme. Housing & Property Markets: Yerevan’s apartment prices rose in Q1 2026, with 4,704 buy-sell transactions up sharply year-on-year, while Kentron led pricing. Urban Development & Water Infrastructure: VA Tech Wabag’s consortium won a UAE Ajman sewage biorefinery Phase 3 contract for a 60 million litres/day plant, reinforcing GCC wastewater investment. Real Estate, Risk & Cross-Border Demand: Compass and Montefiore Real Estate Group launched “The Global Bridge to Israel,” aiming to connect U.S. and international luxury buyers with Israeli property opportunities. Regional Investment Outlook: A report argues Syria is slowly returning to the regional investment radar as trade, logistics and energy routes realign. Geopolitics Impacting Livability: Lebanon’s 100-day war toll includes major housing destruction and large displacement, a direct hit to residential stock and local real estate demand.

Saudi Real Estate Finance: Alramz and Assayel Arabia will launch a Shariah-compliant Riyadh residential fund worth SAR 370m (about $98.6m), targeting 290 apartments in Al Raed under the Ramz Al-Raed 2 project, with SNB Capital managing and Alramz handling development and marketing. Saudi Construction Pipeline: Saudi Arabia’s contractor awards jumped nearly 154% in May to almost SAR 30bn (~$8bn), with 18 projects announced; June is expected to bring 20 more awards, with construction set to lead. Oman–UAE Rail Infrastructure: Track installation has started on Oman’s Hafeet Rail, shifting from civil works to railway infrastructure; the 238-km line to connect Sohar Port with the UAE network is about 40% complete as of April 2026. Middle East Conflict Impact on Cities: Israel issued forced evacuation orders for residents of Lebanon’s Tyre ahead of strikes, as renewed fighting drives mass displacement and threatens civilian infrastructure. Dubai Housing Demand Shift: A report says Dubai’s maturing property market is favoring buyers who complete homes, not just buy them—reflecting a more execution-focused market.

Water & Urban Infrastructure: Israel’s Water Authority approved a long-term desalination plan that, for the first time, lets private firms plan and build large plants—aiming for 2.3bn cubic meters of desalinated water yearly by 2050 and 2.75bn by 2075, with approvals tied to water, energy and land-use regulators. Housing & Land Development: Iraq’s PM urged business leaders to back the “one-million residential land plot” initiative, pushing provincial infrastructure and self-financing—especially in electricity—amid a long-running housing shortage. Smart Cities & Connectivity: Kuwait’s Zain partnered with URC to power Hessah District’s full digital infrastructure, covering residential and commercial zones with 5G connectivity and smart-home solutions. Real Estate & Luxury Market: Dubai Sotheby’s reported a record beachfront land sale on Naia Island for Dhs560m, highlighting continued demand from ultra-high-net-worth buyers for rare coastal plots. Regional Stability Watch: Israel and Iran signaled a pause in strikes after renewed exchanges, with both warning they’ll retaliate if provoked—an uncertainty factor for regional development and investment. Settlements & Land Pressure: Reports from the West Bank described new settlement road works and land clearing on Palestinian-owned areas, raising fresh concerns over access and confiscation.

First-Time Buyer Push (Dubai): Dubai’s homeownership programme adds 9 new developers, aiming to widen real choice for would-be owners as mortgage affordability and upfront costs remain key hurdles. Major Construction Awards (Dubai): Majid Al Futtaim awarded a $545m ECC contract for Capria East/West (including Maravelle Residences) within Ghaf Woods, while Dubai-listed ALEC said its subsidiary won three EPC awards worth about $500m across the Gulf. Infrastructure Procurement (Kuwait): Kuwait’s CAPT opened bids for Kuwait International Airport’s T2 and centralized operations/maintenance, with three bidders moving to technical review. Project Tech for Build Sites (Qatar): Xerafy and GBDG will showcase RAIN RFID solutions at Project Qatar 2026 to improve asset visibility and tracking for construction, infrastructure and logistics. Egypt Developer & Finance Moves: TMG Holding topped Egypt’s 2025 sales rankings, while Naeem Real Estate Holding is considering restructuring real estate assets into a fund to unlock funding and efficiency. Market Risk (Israel): Tidhar Group’s TASE debut saw shares fall amid renewed Israel-Iran escalation, adding pressure to real estate and construction sentiment.

Egypt Real Estate & Urban Projects: Egypt’s PM Mostafa Madbouli inspected progress on the Alexandria Metro, with the first 22km phase (Abu Qir to Misr Station) at 47% completion and 20 stations planned, aiming to cut travel time and ease congestion. New Cairo Launches: Illume Societies rolled out Illume Residence in New Cairo’s Sixth Settlement, a EGP 4.5bn, 17.5-feddan mid-rise community targeting delivery within three years. New Administrative Capital Growth: Jadeer Developments launched “Chapters” in the R8 district of Egypt’s New Capital, a 33-feddan integrated residential project (EGP 10bn+) with a Hotel Indigo component. Saudi Mixed-Use Deal: PIF and Talaat Moustafa Group Saudi signed an MoU to explore mixed-use developments across Saudi Arabia, spanning residential, commercial, hospitality and retail. Dubai Infrastructure Boost: Dubai’s RTA completed 90% of a 1,500m bridge linking Sheikh Zayed Road to Dubai Harbour, with journey time expected to drop from 12 minutes to 3. Egypt North Coast Demand: The North Coast accounted for nearly one-third of Egypt’s gated-community sales over the past two years, with EGP 1.2trn in sales in 2024-25 and more than 70 projects marketed across ~35,000 feddans. Iraq Property Integrity Case: Iraq’s judiciary moved to strip an MP’s immunity over alleged extortion tied to a Baghdad residential project, involving demands for 40% equity and $500,000 for approvals.

Dubai Infrastructure: RTA says it has completed 90% of the 1,500-m Dubai Harbour bridge, with foundations, columns and barriers largely done; the bridge is set to open to traffic in June (toward Dubai Harbour) and in July for the return directions, boosting access to the waterfront destination. Egypt North Coast Sales Push: Talaat Moustafa Group launched a new SouthMED offer with reservation down payments from 1.5% and instalments up to 15 years, aiming to accelerate demand for chalets, villas and apartments on the Mediterranean coast. Saudi Skyscraper Milestone: JEC Tower in Jeddah has passed 100 floors and reached 102 floors, underlining continued high-end vertical construction momentum in the Kingdom. Iraq Roads Upgrade: The World Bank approved a $900m initiative to improve Iraq’s road corridors, targeting safer, more reliable transport and wider access for millions along upgraded routes. Turkey Trade Corridor Plan: Turkish officials say the modernised Hejaz Railway could extend toward Oman as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, with early links via the Aleppo-Damascus-Jordan network. Gaza Basic Services Crisis: Reporting highlights the lack of proper toilets across Gaza’s tent cities, a stark reminder that housing and infrastructure needs are still urgent amid displacement. Gulf Finance Angle: The US Treasury is reportedly looking at using Iranian assets to help Gulf allies fund rebuilding after conflict damage, a move that could shape future reconstruction financing.

GCC Earnings Pulse: GCC-listed firms posted record Q1 2026 profits of $67.9bn (+15.5% y/y), led by Saudi, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, though real estate and F&B earnings softened. Kuwait Airport Expansion: Kuwait’s CAPT opened bids for operating and maintaining Kuwait International Airport’s new T2 and aircraft parking areas, with a terminal capacity up to 25m passengers annually. Kuwait Power Infrastructure: Kuwait Municipality approved a conditional underground medium-voltage cable route to Sulaibiya’s cloud data site, requiring route changes to avoid overlaps with utilities, a mosque and roads. Jordan Trade: Jordan’s industrial exports rose 2.6% in Q1 2026 to JD2.027bn, supported by shipments to Asia and Europe. Qatar Investment Appetite: Qatar saw a surge in new companies with full foreign ownership in Q1, up 66% y/y, signaling stronger investor confidence. Oman-UAE Rail Progress: Hafeet Rail track-laying and infrastructure works started, with the project about 40% complete as of April. Iraq Safety Crackdown: Iraq’s civil defense closed about 11,000 buildings over the past year for safety violations, including fire systems and unsafe materials. Gaza Shelter Crisis: Israeli controls and crossing closures left aid at a fraction of needs, with displacement camps facing extreme humanitarian strain.

Foreign Investment & Property Rules: Saudi Arabia updated 2026 guidelines for non-resident foreign companies to own property, requiring authenticated corporate documents, a nominated local representative, and digital identity via Saudi diplomatic missions. Urban Development & Infrastructure: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed an MoU to explore a 140-acre Karachi waterfront maritime business district at Karachi Port Trust, aiming to attract investment and create jobs. Housing Delivery: Turkistan region in Kazakhstan handed keys to 3,564 families in 2025, with 2,292 more expected this year as housing registration and allocation responsibilities shift to Otbasy Bank. Construction & Cost Pressures: Cyprus construction costs jumped 10% in two months, with iron, aluminium and steel hit by Iran-linked energy price pressure and higher emissions allowance costs. Regional Energy/Finance: IRENA partnered with Etihad Credit Insurance to back renewable energy project financing by reducing perceived risks for investors. Security & Risk to Markets: U.S. forces intercepted Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz and struck coastal radar installations, keeping regional shipping and energy-price uncertainty in focus.

World Bank Infrastructure Push (Iraq): The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and the Kurdistan Region’s road network, aiming to improve safety and reliability, strengthen key corridors (E1 Baghdad–Turkish border and E2 Baghdad–Syria/Jordan), and benefit about 7.9m people. Lebanon Humanitarian Strain: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to nearly $640m over six months as Israel-Hezbollah fighting drives repeated displacement and housing/service destruction. West Bank Settlement Pressure: 85 US lawmakers urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to halt settlement construction in the E-1 corridor, warning the window for diplomatic action is closing fast. Saudi Real Estate Rules: Saudi Arabia issued implementing regulations for “white land” and vacant property fees, spelling out new requirements for owners and investors. Turkey Inflation Watch: Turkey’s finance minister said price-stability policies will continue as May inflation hit 32.61% y/y, with housing-related costs feeding rent indexation. Mortgage Rates Ease (US): The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.48%, offering some relief to homebuyers amid ongoing Iran-war-driven price pressures.

Mortgage & Housing Finance: The average long-term U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 6.48% (from 6.53%), offering a small breather to buyers after Iran-linked energy shocks kept borrowing costs elevated. UK Property: UK house prices dipped 0.1% in May, with Halifax pointing to Middle East-driven uncertainty and higher inflation expectations still stretching affordability. Middle East Energy & Power Projects: Egypt signed deals for 1,500 MWh battery storage projects—500 MWh in Zafarana and 1,000 MWh in Benban—aimed at boosting grid stability and renewable integration. UAE/Construction Finance: Integra and SettleMint expanded real estate tokenisation efforts across the UAE and U.S., signaling continued push into digital property markets. Bahrain Urban Access: Bahrain moved to install clearer road signage to Al Ramli after residents complained about poor directions on major highways. Turkey Macro Watch: Turkey’s annual inflation edged up to 32.6% in May, with housing and energy costs still a key driver.