AGP Executive Report

Mortgage & Housing Finance: The average long-term U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 6.48% (from 6.53%), offering a small breather to buyers after Iran-linked energy shocks kept borrowing costs elevated. UK Property: UK house prices dipped 0.1% in May, with Halifax pointing to Middle East-driven uncertainty and higher inflation expectations still stretching affordability. Middle East Energy & Power Projects: Egypt signed deals for 1,500 MWh battery storage projects—500 MWh in Zafarana and 1,000 MWh in Benban—aimed at boosting grid stability and renewable integration. UAE/Construction Finance: Integra and SettleMint expanded real estate tokenisation efforts across the UAE and U.S., signaling continued push into digital property markets. Bahrain Urban Access: Bahrain moved to install clearer road signage to Al Ramli after residents complained about poor directions on major highways. Turkey Macro Watch: Turkey’s annual inflation edged up to 32.6% in May, with housing and energy costs still a key driver.

West Bank Settlement Tax Breaks: Israel’s Knesset approved legislation granting tax benefits tied to an “eastern conflict-line area” for West Bank settlements, passing in late-night readings after controversy over whether aid for northern border communities was removed. Regional Housing & Land Pressure: The same settlement push backdrop continues to draw international criticism, with Türkiye condemning new settlement approvals as undermining a two-state path. U.S.-Iran Sanctions Hit Real Assets: Federal prosecutors moved to seize a $35m Newport Coast mansion tied to Iranian American tech CEO Jamshid Ghomi, accused of supplying U.S. networking and encryption equipment to Iran’s nuclear and military-linked efforts via UAE middlemen. Middle East Energy Cooperation: Iran and Azerbaijan highlighted expanding electricity, hydropower and corridor-linked energy cooperation, signaling a potential new phase despite global market uncertainty. UAE Investment Climate: Reports say the UAE remains a top destination for real estate capital, with renewed focus on due diligence and valuations. Construction Cost Headwinds: Broader coverage points to conflict-driven supply and materials pressures, with construction activity softening and developers watching timelines and costs.

UAE Real Estate Investment Sentiment: A new Arada-backed survey ranks the UAE as the world’s top property investment destination, with 56% of global investors showing serious interest, and especially strong pull from nearby markets like India, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Abu Dhabi Housing Momentum: A separate look at Abu Dhabi’s 2026 outlook points to population growth, long-term economic plans and infrastructure frameworks as key drivers for sustained demand. Project Delivery in Abu Dhabi: ORA Developers has started main construction on Phase 1 of BAYN in Ghantoot, launching 614 homes (townhouses and villas) with delivery targeted from Dec 2028. Flexible Office Expansion: Sweid & Sweid and The Executive Centre (TEC) signed to bring 53,000 sq ft of premium serviced workspace to Sweid One in Jumeirah Lakes Towers (DMCC). Construction Demand Pressure: In the UK, construction activity slowed sharply, with residential housebuilding hit hardest—an indirect reminder of how Middle East-linked uncertainty can spill into housing pipelines. Energy-Linked Buildouts: KEPCO won the second phase contract for Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah cogeneration project, a $1.4bn-scale power and steam expansion that underpins industrial and infrastructure growth. Regional Risk to Markets: Israel-Gaza strikes and new West Bank settlement approvals continue to raise geopolitical risk, while investors watch oil and rates for knock-on effects on real estate affordability and timelines.

Sanctions & Tech Supply Chain: U.S. authorities arrested Jamshid Ghomi, a Tehran-linked tech CEO, alleging he funneled U.S. networking and encryption equipment to Iran’s nuclear and military programs, laundering over $15m and using proceeds to fund a $35m Newport Beach mansion. Gaza Land-Use & Security Buildout: Satellite imagery reported by Al Jazeera claims Israel is building dozens of fortified permanent military bases inside Gaza after the 2025 ceasefire, raising fears of long-term control and displacement. Middle East Investment Platform: Arqaam Capital opened its 13th Annual MENA Investor Conference in Dubai, with UAE officials stressing investment resilience and cross-border capital flows. Property Governance Update (Qatar): Qatar’s Cabinet approved an Owners’ Association law to regulate property management in jointly owned developments, aiming to improve governance and reduce disputes. Construction & Tourism Pressure (Albania): Albania protests continue over Jared Kushner’s luxury resort plans, with demonstrators citing environmental damage and approval concerns.

Middle East Energy & Infrastructure: ADNOC warns that as the Hormuz shutdown drags on, physical oil supply could tighten by end-summer, with full flows unlikely until early 2027—keeping prices elevated; the UAE is pushing pipeline work to bypass the waterway and protect volumes. UAE Real Estate & Capital Flows: Dubai property demand is rebounding after a March trough, with foreign transactions up sharply in Q1 as investors pause rather than exit. Saudi Real Estate/Development: Emaar Misr clarifies it has no CEO appointed, with Mohamed Alabbar retaining operational oversight after the CEO contract termination. Digital Infrastructure for Property & Industry: Damac Digital says its IT capacity landbank has hit 6,000MW across 13+ countries, aiming for more operational capacity by 2027–2028—fueling data-centre and AI-linked build demand. Israel Hospitality Pipeline: Isrotel plans a 217-room Eilat hotel with a suspended pool and new glamping/resort expansions, targeting openings in about two years. Egypt Investment Planning: Egypt unveils FY 2026/27 development plan targeting EGP 3.7tn investments, with private-sector share rising to 59%. Regional Business Links: Armenia and Turkey meet in Kars to discuss transport, logistics, tourism and trade cooperation.

US Housing & Finance Meets Intelligence: President Donald Trump appointed Bill Pulte—head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac—as acting Director of National Intelligence, despite lawmakers questioning his national security credentials and critics flagging his housing-sector role and political track record. Middle East Conflict & Property Sentiment: As US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz dynamics stay in focus, markets watch oil and inflation spillovers that can cool housing demand; Dubai’s property market is described as “paused not broken,” with foreign transactions still rising in Q1. GCC Real Estate Relief: Abu Dhabi froze rent increases, offering near-term relief for existing and new tenants—an immediate signal for landlords, expats, and rental planning. Palestine & Urban Development Risk: Reports detail continued Israeli attacks, demolitions, and settlement expansion plans in occupied areas, adding uncertainty for land, construction, and investment. Infrastructure That Shapes Growth: Pakistan approved a new Mansehra–Chilas motorway via Kaghan/Naran with a major Babusar Tunnel, aiming to cut KKH travel distance by up to 120km—exactly the kind of connectivity boost that can unlock regional development. Greece Golden Visa & Hiring: HRCM expanded Golden Visa consulting plus hospitality and construction recruitment services in Greece, targeting international investors and job seekers.

UAE Rent Relief: Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre froze residential, commercial and industrial rent increases at 0% for renewals and new leases on previously rented units, citing affordability pressure amid Iran-war-linked cost and job impacts. Saudi Redevelopment Pipeline: Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites awarded the East Hindawiyah informal settlement redevelopment concession to a consortium led by First Avenue, with a SAR 2bn ($532m) fund-structured project mixing offices, homes, retail and hospitality near the Grand Mosque. Makkah Growth via Funds: Ladun Investment’s consortium won the Khalidiyah informal settlement redevelopment, targeting sales above SAR 6bn ($1.6bn) and using a closed-ended private real estate investment fund to finance infrastructure and plot servicing. Construction Materials & Supply Risk: Japan warned naphtha shortages tied to Strait of Hormuz disruptions could hit plastics and construction inputs, raising concerns for housing-related materials availability. Housing Market Pressure: Australia reported a 3.4% drop in dwelling approvals in April, with analysts linking softer activity to higher interest rates. Urban Heritage & Land Use: Türkiye’s Side excavations uncovered a new road network toward the ancient city’s second main gate, adding detail on long-term urban development. Gaza Displacement Risk: Israel’s planned expansion of control area in Gaza is reviving fears of renewed displacement, with housing damage and restricted access worsening uncertainty for residents.

Iraq Real Estate & Mixed-Use: TMG secures an investment licence and land bank in southwest Baghdad to build an integrated smart mixed-use community with ~43,000 homes, ~2.3m sqm of non-residential space, and an $18.8bn sales target. Kuwait Planning & Building Rules: Kuwait’s Municipal Council approved accessibility monitoring for people with disabilities, compliance with the Kuwait Building Code, clearer standards for electronic ads, and a dedicated entrance/exit for a freshwater project—while pausing canopies/public gardens rules near private homes. Saudi-Kuwait Gas Development (Construction): Bids are underway for Dorra offshore gas EPC packages in the neutral zone, with L&T–Saipem and Tecnicas Reunidas leading, supporting major regional infrastructure demand. Oman Tourism & Hospitality Demand: Kuwaiti visitor arrivals to Oman rose 17.2% (2024-2025); Dhofar’s khareef season is expanding, with infrastructure and hotel capacity now targeting 1m+ peak visitors. Gaza & West Bank Displacement Risk: UN experts warn settler violence is driving forcible displacement and expanding settlement exposure, adding uncertainty for housing and land planning across the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Construction Costs Pressure: Nigeria’s construction costs jumped ~20% in five months, linked to Iran–Israel conflict disruptions affecting freight and imported materials.

West Bank Settlements: Israel is set to discuss plans for 2,700+ new settlement units across the occupied West Bank, with zoning and construction boundary changes flagged by the Palestinian Commission Against the Wall and Settlements. UK Housing Shock (Iran-war spillover): Nationwide reports UK house prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in May and annual growth slowed to 1.7%, citing higher mortgage and energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Saudi Urban Cooling: Saudi Arabia plans a Riyadh project to cool roads and building surfaces by up to 15°C, with pilot areas and new urban planning/construction guidelines in the works. Makkah Expansion Contracts: Umm Al Qura-led consortium wins letters of award for two Makkah sites (Hindawiya West/South) worth about $1.6bn, expanding Masar Destination. Baghdad Hospitality Progress: Rixos Baghdad Hotel and Residences tops 60% completion, targeting handover in Q1 2027 with 314 hotel rooms and 174 apartments. Egypt Transport Mega Push: Egypt prepares the fifth phase of Metro Line 3 “Airport Link,” adding 7 stations over 9.2 km to connect Cairo’s metro network to the airport. Turkey Economy & Real Estate: Türkiye’s Q1 2026 GDP grows 2.5% y/y; real estate activities expand 3% while construction grows 3.2%. Construction Tech: Procore says firms are moving from disconnected project data to connected information environments to support AI-driven workflows.

Middle East Housing & Finance: Egypt’s Financial Regulatory Authority cut fees for Misr for Central Clearing, Depository and Registry (MCDR) tied to digital real estate investment fund certificates, aiming to lower costs for funds, platforms and investors and boost regulated access to property-linked investment. Gulf Property Demand: Dubai’s overseas-buyer model faces a real risk from travel disruption, with flight limits and cancellations affecting viewings, legal handovers and buyer confidence. Real Estate Market Correction: Egypt’s top developers posted EGP 271bn in Q1 2026 contracted sales, down 6.5% year-on-year, as the market shifts into a “healthy correction” with buyers more selective and liquidity tighter. Geopolitics Driving Costs: With the US-Iran standoff still unresolved, energy-driven inflation and higher rates are weighing on housing affordability and construction sentiment across markets. Legal Rights in Housing: Kuwait’s Court of Appeals upheld a ruling letting a woman obtain a title deed for a residential plot despite her husband’s refusal, reinforcing protections for government housing beneficiaries. Conflict Impact on Livelihoods: In the West Bank, Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian man trying to cross a barrier for work, underscoring how instability disrupts daily economic life.

Urban Cooling & Heat Resilience: Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with a Riyadh urban cooling project to cut road and building surface temperatures by up to 15°C, with studies and approvals underway and a lead consultant (PLANET) already selected. Haj Infrastructure & Public Services: Saudi Arabia’s Municipalities and Housing ministry says it executed its 1447 AH Haj operational plan with 22,000+ staff, 3,000+ equipment units, and large-scale sanitation—removing 250,000+ tonnes of waste in Makkah and 16,000+ tonnes at holy sites—alongside 38,000+ food inspection visits. Construction & Materials Supply Risk: Japan is seeing widening shortages of petroleum-derived inputs like thinners, paints and adhesives, with data pointing to falling toluene production/sales as Middle East disruptions (including Hormuz-linked supply strain) ripple through petrochemical supply chains. Cross-border Real Estate/Infrastructure Finance: Asprofin Bank is evaluating a UAE sovereign data center programme across three sites, targeting 750–1,280 MW of AI compute capacity over 10–15 years—an investment theme that can reshape land, power and logistics demand in major emirate locations. Regional Conflict Pressure on Housing: In occupied East Jerusalem, Israeli authorities forced a family in Qalandia to self-demolish seven homes, highlighting how permit denials and demolition costs continue to drive displacement risk.

Modular Construction in the Gulf: EcoModular signed an MoU with IDS (Riyadh) and Modul Consult (Riga) to jointly market and deliver modular construction services, with possible future corporate alignment—another sign the GCC is pushing modern methods of construction. Retail Real Estate (Qatar): ValuStrat says Qatar’s Q1 2026 retail market stayed broadly stable, with 5.7m sqm GLA total and organised retail at 2.5m sqm; activity improved early in the quarter thanks to major events and new brand openings. Urban Development (Turkey): Ankara’s 51,000-seat stadium project is over 90% complete, with seating installation underway and UEFA inspections already done—useful context for future sports-led real estate demand. Middle East Conflict & Property: Cushman & Wakefield links the West Asia crisis to higher energy and logistics costs, warning occupiers and developers across Asia Pacific may see slower construction deliveries and pressure on logistics/industrial and retail demand. Housing Affordability (UK): ONS data shows mortgaged homeowners faced higher inflation than renters over five years, tightening affordability and shaping demand. Energy Transition (Saudi cement): Saudi Arabia’s cement sector faces the dual challenge of sustaining construction growth while cutting emissions, highlighting how decarbonisation will affect future building costs and supply.

Middle East Housing & Affordability: A key theme this week is affordability pressure and slower homebuying, with reports pointing to buyers hesitating as mortgage costs stay elevated and sellers adjust pricing more realistically. Water Constraints & Urban Growth: A regional forecast for Canada’s Mannheim Service Area projects 34,000 new residents and about 17,500 new homes by 2031, but development hinges on whether near-term water capacity can keep up. Construction & Infrastructure Budgets: Uzbekistan pushed EAEU-linked plans for digital trade, industrial cooperation, transport connectivity and labor mobility, while regional budget coverage highlights energy, water and irrigation priorities and industrialization goals. Policy & Rates Watch: Central banks remain cautious as Middle East tensions keep energy and inflation risks alive, with markets watching for potential rate shifts that could feed into housing affordability. Real Estate Market Signals: New-home sales in the U.S. fell to a four-year low, underscoring how higher rates and uncertainty can cool demand. Regional Development Projects: Greece’s Project Trident outlines a €1.35bn shipbuilding/port/logistics push—an infrastructure catalyst with knock-on effects for construction and jobs.

West Bank Land & Settlements: Israel has approved a major illegal settlement expansion in the occupied Jordan Valley, with plans for 517 new units for Masua over 1,692 dunams, alongside roads and infrastructure aimed at consolidating control and restricting Palestinian growth. Mortgage & Housing Affordability: In the US, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 6.53%, keeping homebuying costs high as Iran-war-linked energy and inflation pressures continue to feed bond yields. Regional Finance & Construction Demand: Qatar’s stock market advanced on banking-led confidence, supported by energy revenues and infrastructure spending, while investors stayed cautious amid ongoing regional uncertainty. Energy Transition & Industry: Egypt is pushing solar adoption to diversify supply after gas import disruptions, with a plan to encourage factories to install solar PV and lift clean energy to 45% by 2028. Infrastructure Mega-Project: Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport has entered a new delivery phase, with runway and terminal procurement moving in parallel as it targets up to 120m passengers by 2030 and 185m by 2050. Cross-Border Remittances: A report warns the Iran conflict is jeopardising migrant workers’ remittance lifelines, highlighting how fees and friction can blunt the real economic impact of Gulf-to-home money flows.

Jerusalem Real Estate in the Spotlight: A Jerusalem municipality-led housing event in Manhattan (“Jerusalem. Your Home. Your Future”) is set to face protests from PAL-Awda NY/NJ, which claims it promotes “illegal real estate” tied to settlement activity and land theft. Middle East Energy Shock and Real Assets: The IEA warns that Hormuz disruption is reshaping energy investment plans, pushing diversification and security-focused spending that can spill into construction and property financing. Housing Affordability Pressure: US mortgage rates hit 6.53% (30-year fixed), keeping homebuying out of reach and weighing on market recovery—an environment that often tightens demand across global real estate. Gaza Land Control: Netanyahu says Israel has expanded control over Gaza to about 60% and is directing further moves, while rights monitors warn this undermines ceasefire terms and fuels de facto annexation. Infrastructure Risk in the Gulf: Analysts note Iran-linked threats to subsea cables may be hard to enforce, but war is already delaying Gulf cable projects, raising odds of infrastructure cost and schedule overruns.

Housing & Finance: South Africa’s SARB is widely expected to lift rates on May 28, a move that typically cools new home buying and adds pressure to already-stretched affordability. Urban Policy: Turkey is tightening the energy rules for big buildings—new certificates for energy performance and life-cycle assessments from Jan 1, 2027—signaling a shift where inefficient properties may lose value fast. Construction & Delivery: Tel Aviv is set to approve 5,000 new homes for the city center, while in the West Bank Israel issued demolition orders for apartments east of Qalandia, adding to housing insecurity. Energy & Real Assets: Malaysia is leaning on offshore gas to meet record power demand from data centres, while LNG supply dynamics tied to the Iran conflict keep reshaping regional energy costs. Market Context: South Korea’s central bank raised its 2026 growth forecast on semiconductor strength, but flagged risks including metro housing prices and household debt. Regional Human Impact: Gaza’s Idul Adha highlights how war-driven shortages and damaged buildings are still pushing basic goods out of reach.